An Overview of Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation
نویسنده
چکیده
Many of the talks and posters during this year’s conference will discuss how both ensemble forecasting and atmospheric data assimilation can work synergistically together. We detail provide a brief description of the underlying theoretical basis for this research. The unifying idea is that the chaotic nature of the atmosphere can actually be put to use to improve data assimilation. Ensemble forecasts provide flow-dependent estimates of likelihood of a model-forecast state; modern data assimilation theory requires just this sort of estimate in order to determine how to effectively assimilate new observations. Thus, ensemble forecasting and data assimilation can be coupled into a unified theory. It is possible that data assimilation systems around the world 10 years hence will be using ensemble-based methodologies. It is time for this research to emerge from a being fringe discipline to being the central focus for how to improve data assimilation and numerical weather forecasts.
منابع مشابه
University of Oklahoma Graduate College Assimilation of Casa and Wsr-88d Radar Data for Tornadic Convective Storms Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter and Applications in Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasting
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